July numbers are in and considering the early part of this year, they look pretty good. Some takeaways depending on what kind of mood you're in.
For the Pessimists
- Aside from pending sales, every other key 2009 metric has been weaker than its 2008 counterpart for every month of 2009.
- Median prices, pending, and closed sales for July 2009 were down (4-8%) from June 2009.
- Inventory, on the other hand, continues to grow and is up 2% versus previous month.
- Median prices and pending sales were down the last two months.
For the Optimists
- For the first time in 2009, pending sales were higher than the same month in 2008.
- Year over year closed sales have been improving each month for the last 3 consecutive months.
- Median prices have been holding steady within a 5% range of $285,000 for the last 6 months.
- Pending and closed sales in July were 50% and 90% higher than the low water point of February.
One more month of this YOY trend and I’ll agree it’s the bottom. It’s like our recovery is crowning.
Well, a while back i commented on how things are going, from where i am sitting. I close title, and honestly, things are NOT looking good. For the next couple of months, things sort of level off, decline a little bit, but the ONLY thing that we are closing now, is FHA loans. Nothing else is really moving, and i have a feeling (from meetings that our bosses drag us to) after the 8k tax money stops, we are going to see a very very dramatic decline in home sales in this area. So, my opinion only, the fat lady is NOT singing yet!