Spring is here so let’s see how the numbers are looking. For the month of March, inventory remains high in Seattle at 52.43% compared to same time last year. Year-over-year pending sales dropped 27.76%. In fact, from January to March 08, we have seen a consistent drop in closed sales over the same time last year. However, in March, median price for Seattle condos increased by 4.11%.
Days on market remains longer than same time last year for all the neighborhoods. Months of inventory in Belltown/downtown has recovered from early this year. In January, Feburary and March, the months inventory has been shrinking from 14, to 8.3 to 7.6. It looks like we are moving from a buyers’ market gradually to a balanced market in Belltown/downtown. Kudos to those buyers who picked up great deals in January.
Summary: More property is on the market and staying on the market longer than last year; however, sellers are not slashing prices nearly as much as some had expected. Most homebuyers are taking a little bit longer to decide on their purchase knowing that there is not as much urgency. Sellers on the other hand are still holding on to the prices they believe their condos ought to command and in some cases are making a symbolic reductions in the price but rarely more than 10%. For the sellers who can wait, they are opting to rent out their condo to capitalize on the strong rental market.
Flashback: I was curious how many readers were right about their prediction on the market for March 08 compared to Fall 2007? 22% of SCR voters were right that the market will perform the same in March (~5% change in median price) compared to September 07 but sell at a slower rate. About half of the poll takers incorrectly predicted in October that the pricing in the spring would drop by up to 30%.
Is there anyway to break down the medium price into sq/ft price and provide YOY comparison? The appreciation on YOY may simply be bigger condos were being sold in March of this year than last, and/or maybe newer condos are being sold than last.
It’s a good idea. I may consider doing that for a future post.
Maybe some were wrong last year about the pricing this Spring but this Summer prices are gonna crater. You can take that to the bank.
rick’s right.
sellers holding out are gonna wish they voluntarily dropped their prices earlier and modestly instead of waiting for the coming glut of unsold summer props forcing things down.
Are you people serious? How much more data do people need to see before they acknowledge that there is NOT going to be a depression and next year’s prices will stay within 10% of exactly where they are today (equal chance 10% higher or lower). Jeez. Sometimes I think the commenters above were people who were too “smart” to buy in the early 2000’s and are insisting the market must go back to 2001 levels or lower for them to be vindicated. Get over it.
I’ll gladly share some of my info so that people can know what’s up.
Cosmopolitan 2408 sold for a healthy loss.
2200 N1704 also sold for a loss.
Shortsale in Cristalla.
The Bellora Penthouse is owned by Countrywide.
Almost every flipper (when you account for carrying costs) has lost money with the exception of 2200 unit N1401.
Silly Kelly…just a kid.
Kelly, Unless you live under a rock it’s your powers of observation that need to be questioned. Inventory is rising rapidly, no more easy financing, speculators are gone, declining sales. Prices will be heading down. This scenario has already played out several times across the country. Are you paying attention? Seattle is not “special”. Despite all of your nonsense cheerleading.
Hmmm. So if there’s all this inventory and the sky is falling, why are prices only a few percent off last year? Shouldn’t all your talk about countrywide have kicked in by now?
Dear EconE (aka lack of econ knowledge):
I think hyperbole and arbitrary anecdotes don’t trump reality and data.
Your nonsense talk: “Inventory is rising rapidly, no more easy financing, speculators are gone, declining sales. Prices will be heading down. This scenario has already played out several times across the country.”
The facts (5 year HISTORIC pricing for Belltown):
http://www.zillow.com/real-estate/WA-Seattle/Belltown-affordability
So the sub-prime mortgage meltdown happened in early 2006 (that’s 2 years ago). Let me guess, prices will drop 50% in 2007, no wait, at the end of 2007…no really early 2008…just around the corner..no really, just around the corner…no really, next month…
Perhaps you should do your homework before sputtering on like that.
Kelly Kelly Kelly.
How cute of you to use a 5 year chart for Belltown. Bubble years if I remember correctly.
I could go on and on and show an actual trend with my data.
Azur W701 also sold for a loss.
Ouch.
And no…funny loans didn’t dry up in the beginning of 2006. And it’s not about “sub-prime”.
But if now is a good time to buy…
double down!
And speaking of doing your homework…you credited a quote to me that wasn’t even mine.
Median prices can be a tricky thing ;o)
Oh…and don’t forget the ARM resets.
toodles!
For the sake of my newly purchased condo in downtown Seattle, I sure hope that prices don’t plummet. I don’t think they will though. Maybe down a bit if things continue to be shaky, but nothing dramatic. I appreciate everyone’s comments on this blog. I adore Econe’s perspective and think that he is a creative and thoughtful blogger. Even if his viewpoints don’t reflect mine at all times. Keep on keeping on.
I like EconE too. I just happen to think he’s wrong most of the time.
EconE we need a new post on the 2200 blog. Get to it! hee hee
EconE is amusing. He takes enjoyment out of pressing peoples buttons. The housing market is just one way to do that.
Market will stay within 10% of where it is now.
My husband says that I’m obsessed with hating EconE. I think he’s jealous 😉
econe rampantly searches the web for any brite spot of RE news, and quickly douses it with his pithy comments and wit, the pleasure he derives from it is palatable.
clearly someone gave him a raw deal on some housing transaction in his early childhood or something. Its a healing process, I understand.
yeah, he’s def bitter. maybe he overpaid at the cosmo. also, when you consider the fact that there are thousands of condos in Seattle, citing properties sold at a loss or even short sales is part of a normal funtioning market. if everything sold for a huge gain and every single owner paid his mortgage on time, he’d be saying we’re in a bubble.
“he’s def bitter.”
Not as bitter as recent Seattle condo purchasers are going to be, methinks…
“citing properties sold at a loss or even short sales is part of a normal funtioning market.”
Really? How many short sales and properties were sold at a loss in Seattle in 2006?
Only a serious recession will bring prices down. The sellers are not selling because they do not have to. If they lose jobs, then they will have to. I don’t think there is a serious recession coming. Everything reasonably priced I’ve seen has moved. A few speculators might get squeezed out which is good for any buyers looking for a home, but don’t think you will get any steals because for people who bought homes instead of speculating we can just and wait till we get enough to get us to leave. Downtown is a nice place to be, and you cannot change that. That is what makes sales possible.
Agree with Greg. The people I know who got screwed are flippers, not normal people who planned to live in there condo for a few years.
Agreed. Maybe prices drop 10% at the worst of it, but we don’t have crazy high prices here. I don’t believe we are living in a market with a ton of froth. Yea, ARMs are resetting, but unless you signed some crazy 2% APR ARM for one year, your ARM is resetting to maybe a point higher. I have a house that I bought at 5.25% 3.5 years ago that I can refinance at 5.5-6%. No huge adjustment there.
The thing to watch is Job growth. Most of the cranes in the sky are building offices for the 55,000 new jobs that are created annually in Seattle. People don’t buy condos in Seattle for vacation homes, second homes or investments the way they did in declining markets. This is why Seattle sellers cnacel their listings or rent when they don’t sell for the price they wanted, they’re here long term with good jobs & roots in the community, & aren’t caught with 2 or 3 additional mortgages. Another thing about those jobs, that’s 55,000 high income professionals moving in, not the same thing as Vegas job growth, which means more landscapers & service providers at the mall & casinos. One of our jobs has the economic benefit to our market as 5 to 10 minimum wage jobs.
By the way the ARM I got a year ago adjusted down $300 in March!! Interest rates are very low, & we might even keep the Sonics
Yah, but take into account the jobs leaving our state eventually like Washington Mutual (which employs tons of people downtown) AND now Safeco too. I am trying not to be a doom and gloomer, but it sounds not so good.
Yah, but take into account the jobs coming into our state eventually like Yahoo (which employs thousands of people). I am trying to be a doom and gloomer, but it’s sounding pretty good.
call me crazy but i think both sides are wrong. the market’s not gonna go up or down but be precisely where we are today.
I dunno. Market is going up or down or sideways for sure. And for sure I’ll be watching Fourth of July fireworks from the balcony of my new condo when I visit Seattle this summer. I plan to flip it to my kids in about 20 years. Life is just too short to worry about “the market.” If you can afford it, start living and stop worrying.