October numbers are in. They could be worse but they aren't very encouraging.
Seems like half of the buyers who might have been in the market decided to wait and see in October. Only the most confident buyers pulled the trigger while banks were collapsing and bailouts were being debated all around us. In fact, there were half as many pending sales in October 2008 as there were in October 2007. This was probably the most pronounced year-over-year decline since I started this blog a few years ago.
Inventory on the market was also down versus last year (10% fewer listings year over year) and a little over 5% lower than September 2008. While this reduced inventory is the right direction if you want the market to find its bottom soon, it pails in magnitude relative to the pending sales decline.
If November 2008 pending numbers come in higher, the same, or down <20% of November 2007 pending numbers, it will probably mean things are slow but that October might have been a particularly harsh month and not necessarily indicative of longer term trends. If November is just as bad as October was, we're in for a rough, rough winter.
Well, once again, i am sitting in a unique situation to give another insight into what might be going on. Mostly, we see the declines 3-6 weeks ahead of what shows up in the paper…and I have some more bad news for you Wendy. Batten down the hatches, cause you ain’t seen nothin’ yet! November is going to drop like stone in volume of sales, we are NOT doing any where near the numbers of title clearing and research that we did in the past 6 – 8 weeks. November and December tend to be our slowest months anyway, but they are down way, way below that. So, for what it is worth 1. My boss got laid off on Friday (he was a jerk, but it is still scary)
2. We are NO WHERE NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THIS!
can we see the enlarged picture? no link provided.
Thanks for pointing that out. You can click on the image and it will show up on another window. Give it a few minutes.
@ i work at Chicago title:
That’s not just bad news for Wendy. It’s bad news for all of us, isn’t it?
Yea, actually it is. I didn’t mean to make it sound like it was bad news for one group of people, i.e. people who sell realestate. The point I was trying to make is that there are a lot of different perspectives that you can get on a situation like this. I happen to be sitting (like a little fly on the wall) where i can sort of see the stuff coming down the tube before some other people can see it. You see, the numbers that she has access to, like the ones in the article, are about 1-2 months older that the information that i have at this time. On my desk, and the people I work with, we can see the volume of work that we are doing, which usually indicates transactions. Title people are in a good position to see if the volume is up or down with people buying or selling, and they have to have thier docs in order (hopefully!) weeks before they close.
I posted two comments two days ago in this segment. Why aren’t they showing?
Interesting. Your comments are still showing up in my record ( http://leung.typepad.com/CommentsfromMD.jpg )
It must be a Typepad’s bug.
MD posted these two comments on 11/10/08 at 12.40pm.
I encourage everyone to review http://www.trulia.com Its a wealth of information stemming from all real estate markets across the U.S. I also encourage everyone who would like to do the research to look at Orlando, FL and Miami, FL. Then, look at Seattle. What you will find is a curve (across all market factors) that mirrors or imitates that of those other two cities. The only difference is that Seattle’s curve is lagging by almost 1 year exactly. Which would confirm what I have been saying that our economy in Seattle lags national trends by 12 months. You will also notice that percentage appreciation was IDENTICAL with Seattle compared to Orlando AND market peaks were exactly 12 months apart. This is an EXCELLENT resource to determine when our market is going to bottom out. Given the information in this singular resource (not to mention many others), can anyone objectively predict when that time will be? I’ll be impressed with the person who can respond first with the correct answer! 🙂 I’ll check back later today to see who’s done their research…
1.11pm
One more thing, I should direct those who want to play the game today to go to the “Stats and Trends” tab when visiting http://www.trulia.com DANG, ITS A GREAT SITE AND THIS ONE IS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC!
pales
Thanks, Wendy. I appreciate it!
“Only the most confident buyers pulled the trigger while banks were collapsing and bailouts were being debated all around us.” Really? i didn’t know this,thanks for the information.
-stephen-