More and more economists in the national media are predicting the bottom for the US real estate market overall at the end of the year.
What do you think lies ahead for the Seattle condo market? My intuition says bottom at end of the Fall and slow, gradual, not too exciting "normal" growth over the next few years.
Cast your votes below and you'll see what the other readers think as well.
I think the end of fall is quite optimistic. Seattle has not felt the effects of layoffs from WaMu, Boeing, Weyerhauser, and Microsoft to name a few. Seattle tends to lag in the real estate market compared to other markets in the U.S., so only time will tell. If I had to predict the bottom for Seattle, I’d say 2010 Q4.
I predict the bottom will be end of 2012. Seattle’s problems with traffic, dying companies like Microsoft and WAMU, and unsupportive state government will cause prices to come down an additional 50-70% before hitting bottom for Seattle at the end of 2012 and even after that, there will be no improvement, just lack of losses. My advice is to buy precious metals and short the US equity markets.
I have closely monitored the downtown high-end condo market and I believe as a buyer “Right Now” a buyer can get a great deal. For instance, most of the units at the Cristalla are selling for almost what the original buyers paid back in 2005 before the “Crazy” increase in the market. Units that are still really high in price have mostly been bought by buyers at the height of the market and they now are upside-down in the condo.
I have ventured back into buying but I did my homework and bought a good condo at a great price, plus interest rates are good too.
From my perspective, if you find a condo you like at a reasonable price, then buy it. “If” prices drop slightly more, you might just miss that condo from waiting.
I have many friends that are realtors but if you are an experienced buyer, try buying a condo without having a realtor involved and save some money.
@Albert
Seriously? C’mon dude, get a grip. It’s a recession, it’s not Armageddon. Have fun in your bunker with your canned food.
The bottom will come when you least expect it. I believe we really don’t know, but the baby boom population that can afford the downtown lifestyle isn’t getting any younger, and sometimes time trumps money as a reason to buy. For all the bottom feeders trying to make a buck flipping there are better places to put money. For all those who are actually looking for a home downtown is one of the few places you really do not need a car, and a city that thinks traffic is bad now, just wait, and that will make these plots of land always have value. Now if we could do something about all the panhandling, the prices would take off. It is the only downside to living downtown.
When the bottom comes it will not give out business cards and ask to have lunch. It is trying to form now. Differently in every market. Some it is heavy sales volume, these are mainly the over speculative areas, Southern California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Other markets like mine in Bergen county New Jersey are slowing bottoming and little by little dealing with the inventory. They didn’t go up as much, but well over trend and are not coming down as much. It is a lazy market that is now seeing some action. So where is the bottom? It is all around us, but only one at a time do we get to meet it.
I appreciate the concern which is been rose. The things need to be sorted out because it’s not about the individual but it can be with everyone.
real estate search
I am in search now for my first condo. I may not know much, but my gut tells me that the comment about the effects of the WaMu, Boeing, Microsoft, etc layoffs is dead on. In addition, I make a really decent salary and yet the condos here are priced out of my affordability zone. With people being laid off and others ready to buy, but prices too high, I wonder where the market is for these places?