Zandi sketched out his "timeline to recovery," which sounds fairly optimistic. The stock market bottomed out in the first three months of 2009, he believes. (He'd originally expected this to happen last November; instead it was in March.) Home prices should reach their lowest point by the end of the year. ("I feel very confident about this.") The fiscal-stimulus program should start to work by this summer. Unemployment will peak in the second quarter of 2010. And economic expansion should begin again in the fall of 2010. "My point is, things can turn pretty quickly," Zandi said, chuckling. "How's that for a happy ending?"
Zandi is considered a professional, FWIW 😉
Are we sure the stock market bottomed? If economic expansion doesn’t happen til fall of 2010 then where are the earnings coming from that will keep the market from falling further? Long term (5 to 10 years) things are bargain priced, but don’t be to quick to count on a rapid recovery.
I think most of us have a good feel for when the market will turn. The prognosticators act like they have a crystal ball – and more often than not, they are quite off the mark.
My suggestion is to perk up your ears, open your eyes. Those who you see, who you hear in the cafe, restaurants, parks, malls, are the actors that make the numbers show up later.
If you pay enough attention, you will know 3-6 months before the policy makers, who depend on reports of the past to understand the present, and to guess about the future.
this is absurd. there is NO CHANCE that RE is going to bottom this year. probably not till 2011 at the absolute earliest. everyone is ignoring all logic on this. people don’t have a “good feel” for the market returning – that’s a bit crazy too. this is the most overblown housing market in history. there is still much downside – job loss, stagnation, inflation and prices need further declines to return to their “natural” levels. no one really wants to acknowledge the obviousness of the last point, but that is why it will continue declining
How do u explain this?
http://www2.seattlepi.com/articles/409017.html