Couldn't help but notice a nice shape starting to form in Altos Research's median price chart.

Median prices  


Hard to say if this is a blip or if it's the end of dropping prices.  If it is, so much for the wisdom of the crowds (at least the SCR poll respondendents) since half of the readers out there were predicting bottom would be in 2010 or later.  I too was a bit more pessimistic than the chart above and had predicted bottom this fall but glad to be proven wrong if this trends holds up 😉


Some fun quotes from the original post.


Da' bears:


I think the end of fall is quite optimistic. Seattle has not felt the effects of layoffs from WaMu, Boeing, Weyerhauser, and Microsoft to name a few. Seattle tends to lag in the real estate market compared to other markets in the U.S., so only time will tell. If I had to predict the bottom for Seattle, I'd say 2010 Q4.
Posted by: John | Apr 13, 2009 9:56:48 AM

I predict the bottom will be end of 2012. Seattle's problems with traffic, dying companies like Microsoft and WAMU, and unsupportive state government will cause prices to come down an additional 50-70% before hitting bottom for Seattle at the end of 2012 and even after that, there will be no improvement, just lack of losses. My advice is to buy precious metals and short the US equity markets.

Posted by: Albert | Apr 13, 2009 1:44:57 PM


Da' bulls:



Seriously? C'mon dude, get a grip. It's a recession, it's not Armageddon. Have fun in your bunker with your canned food.
Posted by: Harry | Apr 13, 2009 8:58:00 PM


My intuition says bottom at end of the Fall and slow, gradual, not too exciting "normal" growth over the next few years. 

Posted by: Wendy Leung